Will We Make it to Mars?

Recently there has been a lot of giddiness and renewed enthusiasm for a manned mission to Mars. This is largely fueled by the blockbuster hit movie The Martian, as well as the fact that NASA have been going literally mental on Twitter every month or so with a new discovery. So just how close are we to actually popping a dude on Mars? The answer - not quite there yet, but we are packing our bags and looking for a driver. Mars missions involving humans have been on the cards since the 1950's, where typically the proposed launch date would be 10 to 30 years from the time of proposal. Budget projections for the missions have ranged from 9 to 500 billion dollars[A] . Generally speaking, the price has slowly declined over the years, approaching more 'doable' figures, now companies such as Space X and Mars One have joined the race to Mars, albeit some agencies are more promising than others.

Earth and Mars orbit the sun, where they come closest to each other each 26 months, where the distance of closest encounter can vary from 55 million kilometers (34m miles) to 100 million kilometers (60m miles), which even with our fasted rocket technology would put the journey time from 150 to 300 days alone. In the 80's and 90's NASA were launching shuttles for fun, building the ISS and delivering Hubble all for the price tag of about 1 billion dollars per launch (with figures still being disputed)[B]. For 1 Billion dollars you could get something/someone into low orbit but to understand how far from mars this is we need an analogy. I live in bonny Edinburgh Scotland, one day I will walk to Vietnam just because. Anyway if I stood at the end of my garden, the distance I have left to walk is about the equivalent of the distance from low earth orbit to Mars (and equally as depressing). [*]

Building rockets is not an easy job, it requires bare minimum hundreds of skilled Engineers, physicists, technicians and support staff to get it successfully off the ground. The budget is further crippled by the fact that each rocket is a 'now or never' job, where they are not re-used; even the shuttle was not a fully re-usable launch package. Then there is the costs for the steel, machining, fuel the launch pad, the legal matters and the use of a control center - good luck getting one insured.

Before Space X came on the scene, rocket launches were almost exclusively done by governments - it was thought that only they had the resources and $$$ to make a launch happen. Enter Space X - a private company that decided to take on the rocket industry, right from the get go, they did things differently; all parts were built and assembled in the same place thus reducing transport and logistics costs. Since they were a private company, outsourcing was kept to a minimum, whereas national contracts for rocket launches can have as much as 10 layers of outsourcing and third parties, this means 10 opportunities for companies to make a profit margin. Space X can now launch rockets cheaper than any competitors, including China, India and Russia. Yet we are still talking at least 60 million dollars; but with new market competition the prices are declining[C].

You may have heard the argument 'pffft we have diseases, war and enough of our own problems than to be wasting dosh on a trip to a place with no internet'. I put that quote in italics to represent my vitriol hatred for comments like that; if you want impartiality then go to BBC lol. Well for one, Mars does have internet!.. but you probably wont be able to stream Netflix just yet. At present the amount of money we spend on space research from all countries in the word combined is still less than that of cosmetics[D]. The budget for NASA has seen cutbacks each year and as a result have axed many projects, which is partially why the USA are currently unable to put men into space. Since the state on earth is less than 'cool' with things like global warming, war, overpopulation and the good old threat of impending doom from a meteor impact - the need to have a back up civilization should be a no brainer. That means laying the groundwork for a future living habitat on mars.

Unlike most bodies in our back yard, Mars has the potential to host humans without burning us to a crisp or crushing us like Justin Beiber in a sumo wrestling competition. Mars is a small rocky planet, half as chunky as our current pad, with a comfy 37% gravitational pull you feel as you read this now on the toilet. Since Mars has no oceans anymore its surface area just happens to be approximately the same as Earths - so plenty of room for all. As well as being pretty close to earth (astronomically speaking), it is also the best shot we have of a 'fixer upper' planet in the solar system[C]. This is because, scientists believe that mars was once very similar to earth, in that it had an atmosphere and retained moderate temperatures with flowing water on the surface.

Whilst you may say "aha! but didn't NASA find running water on Mars already?" - yes but that is only because it has salt in it to stop it from freezing. You see Mars has temperatures that vary from of about −143 °C (−225 °F) at the winter polar cap to highs of up to 35 °C (95 °F) in equatorial summer [D]. That said most of the time Mars is chilly, with very little atmospheric pressure which would not be good, among other things your blood would boil as a result of the pressure drop, oh yea there is a radiation concern lol.

From mars, you could see the sun just like on earth... but smaller and duller. The martian surface receives roughly 60% the sunlight that Earth receives on average; in fact there are places on earth like that and yes they can grow potatoes there. The main challenge would be filtering the iron oxide (think Rust) from the soil possibly by introducing human soil as an interim to allow bacteria to process it, additionally there are the challenges of making up for the lower levels of nitrogen and carbon - pooing in the soil may do the trick. [D]

As mentioned near the beginning, some believe Mars is just 20 years away... and always will be. That said, today is a great time to live in, because space Agencies are finally actually... really beginning construction on the landers and the rockets that will make landing on Mars a reality. NASA have begun design and construction on the SLS a rocket designed to do the heavy lifting for the people and parts we need to get into orbit to ferry to mars, also the Orion a multi purpose capsule which will take humans through re-entry (or entry if its your first time) is in the works. They have even published a mannifesto with timelines for the mission and what bits they are going to use [E].

Space X are closing in on their Dragon 2 capsule which looks to beat the Orion in both development time and capability (it can do propulsive landing - none of that parachute nonsense). Space X are also due to test their heavy lift Falcon Heavy (yes its named after the Star Wars ship), in expendable mode can send a fully packed dragon to Mars[F].

That isn't to mention the other numerous agencies with plans of their own, that will now be under pressure to deliver since the introduction of private companies into the space industry.

With any luck, we will be around to see humans land on the red planet in what will be the next great giant leap.